%\VignetteEngine{knitr::knitr}
%\VignetteIndexEntry{1. An introduction to the poweRlaw package}
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\usepackage[round]{natbib}% References
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\ihead[]{An overview of the \cc{poweRlaw} package}
\chead[]{}
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\newcommand{\cc}{\texttt}
\newcommand{\xmin}{x_{\min}}

<<echo=FALSE, message=FALSE>>=
library(knitr)
library(poweRlaw)
options(replace.assign=FALSE)

opts_chunk$set(fig.path='knitr_figure_poweRlaw/graphics-', 
               cache.path='knitr_cache_poweRlaw/', 
               fig.align='center', 
               dev='pdf', fig.width=5, fig.height=5, 
               fig.show='hold', cache=FALSE, par=TRUE,
               out.width='0.4\\textwidth')
knit_hooks$set(crop=hook_pdfcrop)

knit_hooks$set(par=function(before, options, envir){
  if (before && options$fig.show!='none') {
    par(mar=c(3,4,2,1),cex.lab=.95,cex.axis=.9,
        mgp=c(3,.7,0),tcl=-.01, las=1)
  }}, crop=hook_pdfcrop)

set.seed(1)
palette(c(rgb(170,93,152, maxColorValue=255),
          rgb(103,143,57, maxColorValue=255),
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          rgb(205,71,103, maxColorValue=255),
          rgb(203,77,202, maxColorValue=255),
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@
% 
\begin{document}
\date{Last updated: \today}  
\title{The poweRlaw package: a general overview}
\author{Colin S. Gillespie}

\maketitle
\begin{abstract}
   \noindent The \cc{poweRlaw} package provides code to fit heavy tailed distributions,
   including discrete and continuous power-law distributions. Each model is
   fitted using a maximum likelihood procedure and cut-off value, $\xmin$, is
   estimated by minimising the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff statistic.
\end{abstract}

\section{Installation}

The package is hosted on CRAN and can be installed in the standard way
<<installation, eval=FALSE>>=
install.packages("poweRlaw")
@
\noindent The developmental version is hosted on github and  can be installed using the \cc{devtools} package\footnote{If you are using Windows, then you will need to install the \texttt{Rtools} package first.}
<<eval=FALSE>>=
install.packages("devtools")
devtools::install_github("csgillespie/poweRlaw")
@
\noindent Once installed, the package can be loaded ready for use with the standard \cc{library} command
<<>>=
library("poweRlaw")
@

\section{Accessing documentation}

Each function and dataset in the package is documented. The command
<<eval=FALSE>>=
help(package="poweRlaw")
@
\noindent will give a brief overview of the package and a complete list of all functions. The list of vignettes associated with the package can be obtained with
<<results='hide', eval=FALSE>>=
vignette(package="poweRlaw")
@
\noindent or
<<results='hide', eval=FALSE>>=
browseVignettes("poweRlaw")
@
\noindent Help on functions can be obtained using the usual R mechanisms. For example, help on the method \verb$displ$ can be obtained with
<<tidy=FALSE, eval=FALSE>>=
?displ
@
\noindent and the associated examples can be run with
<<eval=FALSE>>=
example(displ)
@
\noindent A list of demos and data sets associated with the package can be obtained with
<<eval=FALSE>>=
demo(package="poweRlaw")
data(package="poweRlaw")
@
\noindent If you use this package, please cite it. The appropriate citation is
\begin{center}
Colin S. Gillespie (2015). \textit{Fitting Heavy Tailed Distributions: The poweRlaw Package}. Journal of Statistical Software, \textbf{64(2)}, 1-16. URL http://www.jstatsoft.org/v64/i02/.
\end{center}
The bibtex version can be obtained via
<<results='hide', eval=FALSE>>=
citation("poweRlaw")
@
\noindent For a different way of handling powerlaw type distributions, see
\begin{center}
Colin S. Gillespie (2017). \textit{Estimating the number of casualties in the American Indian war: a Bayesian analysis using the power law distribution.} Annals of Applied Statistics, 2018. URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.01662.
\end{center}

<<echo=FALSE>>=
data(bootstrap_moby)
bs = bootstrap_moby
data(bootstrap_p_moby)
bs_p = bootstrap_p_moby
@ 

\section{Example: Word frequency in Moby Dick}

This example investigates the frequency of occurrence of unique words in the
novel Moby Dick by Herman Melville (see \cite{clauset2009,newman2005}). The data
can be downloaded from
\begin{center}
\url{http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws/data.htm}
\end{center}
\noindent or loaded directly
<<example_word>>=
data("moby")
@

\subsection{Fitting a discrete power-law}

To fit a discrete power-law,\footnote{The examples vignette contains a more
  thorough analysis of this particular data set.} we create a discrete power-law
object using the \cc{displ} method\footnote{\cc{displ}: discrete power-law.}
<<fitting>>=
m_m = displ$new(moby)
@
\noindent Initially the lower cut-off $\xmin$ is set to the smallest $x$ value and the scaling parameter $\alpha$ is set to \texttt{NULL}
<<tidy=FALSE>>=
m_m$getXmin()
m_m$getPars()
@
\noindent This object also has standard setters
<<>>=
m_m$setXmin(5)
m_m$setPars(2)
@
\noindent For a given $\xmin$ value, we can estimate the corresponding $\alpha$ value by numerically maximising the likelihood \footnote{Instead of calculating the MLE, we could use a parameter scan: \texttt{\mbox{estimate\_pars(m\_m, pars=seq(2, 3, 0.1))}}}
<<>>=
(est = estimate_pars(m_m))
@
\noindent For the Moby Dick data set, when $\xmin=\Sexpr{m_m$getXmin()}$, we estimate $\alpha$ to be $\Sexpr{signif(est$pars,4)}$.

The default method for estimating the lower bound $\xmin$, is to minimise the distance between the data and the fitted model CDF, that is
\[
D(x) = \max_{x \ge \xmin} \vert S(x) - P(x) \vert
\]
\noindent where $S(x)$ is the data CDF and $P(x)$ is the theoretical CDF (equation 3.9 in \cite{clauset2009}). The value $D(x)$ is known as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic\footnote{Using the \cc{distance} argument
we can use other distances for estimating $\xmin$. See \mbox{\cc{help(estimate\_xmin)}}}. Our estimate of $\xmin$ is then the value of $x$ that minimises $D(x)$:

<<m_m, echo=1>>=
(est = estimate_xmin(m_m))
m_m$setXmin(est)
@

\begin{figure}[t]
\centering
<<echo=FALSE, fig.width=8, fig.height=8, out.width="0.8\\textwidth">>=
par(mfrow=c(2, 2))
plot(m_m, xlab="x", ylab="CDF", 
     pch=21, bg=1, cex=0.6, 
     panel.first=grid())
lines(m_m, col=2, lwd=2)
hist(bs$bootstraps[,2], xlab=expression(x[min]), ylim=c(0, 1600), 
     xlim=c(0, 30), main=NULL, breaks="fd")
grid()
hist(bs$bootstraps[,3], xlab=expression(alpha), 
     ylim=c(0, 500), xlim=c(1.8, 2.1), main=NULL, breaks="fd")
grid()
plot(jitter(bs$bootstraps[,2], factor=1.2), bs$bootstraps[,3], 
     xlab=expression(x[min]), ylab=expression(alpha), 
     xlim=c(0, 30), ylim=c(1.8, 2.1), cex=0.35, 
     pch=21, bg=1, panel.first=grid())
@
\caption{(a) Plot of the data CDF for the Moby Dick data set. This corresponds
  to figure 6.1(a) in \cite{clauset2009}. The line corresponds to a power-law
  distribution with parameters $\xmin=\Sexpr{est$xmin}$ and
  $\alpha=\Sexpr{signif(est$pars, 3)}$.(b) Characterising uncertainty in
  parameter values using the bootstrap $\xmin$ uncertainty, (c) $\alpha$
  uncertainty (d) Bivariate scatter plot of $\xmin$ and $\alpha$.}\label{F1}
\end{figure}
\noindent For the Moby-Dick data set, the minimum\footnote{These estimates match
  the values in the \citeauthor{clauset2009} paper.} is achieved when $\xmin=7$
and $D(7) = \Sexpr{signif(est$gof, 3)}$. We can then set parameters of power-law
distribution to these "optimal" values
<<m_m, echo=2, eval=FALSE, results='hide'>>=
@
\noindent All distribution objects have generic plot methods\footnote{Generic \texttt{lines} and \texttt{points} functions are also available.}
<<fig.keep='none'>>=
## Plot the data (from xmin)
plot(m_m)
## Add in the fitted distribution
lines(m_m, col=2)
@
\noindent which gives figure \ref{F1}. When calling the \texttt{plot} and \texttt{lines} functions, the data plotted is actually invisibly returned, i.e.
<<fig.keep='none'>>=
dd = plot(m_m)
head(dd, 3)
@
\noindent This makes it straight forward to create graphics using other R packages, such as \cc{ggplot2}.

\subsection{Uncertainty in $\xmin$}

\citeauthor{clauset2009} recommend a bootstrap\footnote{The distance measure used can be altered.
See the associated help page for details.} procedure to get a handle on
parameter uncertainty. Essentially, we sample with replacement from the data set
and then re-infer the parameters (algorithm 1).
\begin{table}[t]
\centering
  \begin{tabular}{@{}ll@{}}
    \hline
    \multicolumn{2}{@{} l}{\textbf{Algorithm 1:} Uncertainty in $\xmin$}\\
    \hline
    {\small 1:} & Set $N$ equal to the number of values in the original data set \\
    {\small 2:} & \textbf{for} \texttt{i} in \texttt{1:B}:\\
    {\small 3:} & $\quad$ Sample $N$ values from the original data set \\
    {\small 4:} & $\quad$ Estimate $\xmin$ and $\alpha$ \\
    {\small 5:} & \textbf{end for} \\
    \hline
  \end{tabular}
\end{table}  

To run the bootstrapping procedure, we use the \texttt{bootstrap} function
<<uncertainty, eval=FALSE>>=
bs = bootstrap(m_m, no_of_sims=1000, threads=1)
@

\noindent this function runs in parallel, with the number of threads used determined by the \texttt{threads} argument. To detect the number of cores on your machine, you can run:
<<>>=
parallel::detectCores()
@
\noindent The object returned by \texttt{bootstrap} is a list with six elements.
\begin{itemize}
\item The original gof statistic.
\item The results of the bootstrapping procedure.
\item The average time (in seconds) for a single bootstrap.
\item The random number seed.
\item The package version.
\item The distance measure used.
\end{itemize}
\noindent The results of the bootstrap procedure can be investigated with histograms
<<fig.keep='none'>>=
hist(bs$bootstraps[,2], breaks="fd")
hist(bs$bootstraps[,3], breaks="fd")
@
\noindent and a bivariate scatter plot
<<fig.keep='none'>>=
plot(jitter(bs$bootstraps[,2], factor=1.2), bs$bootstraps[,3])
@
\noindent These commands give figure \ref{F1}b--d.

\subsection{Do we have a power-law?}

Since it is possible to fit a power-law distribution to \textit{any} data set, it is appropriate to test whether it the observed data set actually follows a power-law.\footnote{Algorithm 2 can be easily extended for other distributions.} Clauset \textit{et al}, suggest that this hypothesis is tested using a goodness-of-fit test, via a bootstrapping procedure. Essentially, we perform a hypothesis test by generating multiple data sets (with parameters $\xmin$ and $\alpha$) and then "re-inferring" the model parameters. The algorithm is detailed in Algorithm 2.
\begin{table}[t]
\centering
  \begin{tabular}{@{}ll@{}}
    \hline
    \multicolumn{2}{@{} l}{\textbf{Algorithm 2:} Do we have a power-law?}\\
    \hline
    {\small 1:} & Calculate point estimates of $\xmin$ and the scaling parameter $\alpha$. \\
    {\small 2:} & Calculate the KS statistic, $KS_d$, for the original data set.\\
    {\small 3:} & Set $n_{\text{tail}}$ equal to the number of values above or equal to \texttt{xmin}.\\
    {\small 4:} & \textbf{for} \texttt{i} in \texttt{1:B}:\\
    {\small 5:} & $\quad$ Simulate a value $n_1$ from a binomial distribution with parameters $n$ and $n_{\text{tail}}/n$.\\
    {\small 6:} & $\quad$ Sample, with replacement, $n - n_1$ values from the data set that is less than $\xmin$.\\
    {\small 7:} & $\quad$ Sample $n_1$ values from a discrete power-law distribution (with parameter $\alpha$).\\
    {\small 8:} & $\quad$ Calculate the associated KS statistic, $KS_{sim}$.\\
    {\small 9:} & $\quad$ If $KS_d > KS_{sim}$, then $P = P + 1$.\\
    {\small 10:} & \textbf{end for} \\
    {\small 11:} & p = P/B.\\
    \hline
  \end{tabular}
\end{table}  
\begin{figure}[t]
\centering
<<do_we_have_a_power,echo=FALSE, fig.width=8, fig.height=4, out.width="\\textwidth">>=
par(mfrow=c(1, 3))
hist(bs_p$bootstraps[,2], xlab=expression(x[min]), ylim=c(0, 1600), 
     xlim=c(0, 45), main=NULL, breaks="fd")
grid()
hist(bs_p$bootstraps[,3], xlab=expression(alpha), 
     ylim=c(0, 500), xlim=c(1.80, 2.05), main=NULL, breaks="fd")
grid()

plot(jitter(bs_p$bootstraps[,2], factor=1.2), bs_p$bootstraps[,3], 
     xlab=expression(x[xmin]), ylab=expression(alpha), 
     xlim=c(0, 40), ylim=c(1.8, 2.05), cex=0.35, 
     pch=21, bg=1,
     panel.first= grid())
@
\caption{Histograms of the bootstrap results and bivariate scatter plot of the bootstrap results. The values of $\xmin$ and $\alpha$ are obviously strongly correlated.}\label{F4}
\end{figure}

When $\alpha$ is close to one, this algorithm can be particularly time consuming to run, for two reasons.
\begin{enumerate}
\item When generating random numbers from the discrete power-law distribution, large values are probable, i.e. values greater than $10^8$. To overcome this bottleneck, when generating the random numbers all numbers larger than $10^5$ are generated using a continuous approximation.
\item To calculate the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, we need explore the state space. It is computationally infeasible to explore the entire state space when $\max(x) >> 10^5$. To make this algorithm computational feasible, we split the state space into two sections. The first section is all values from
\[
\xmin, \xmin+1, \xmin+2, \ldots, 10^5
\]
this set is combined with an additional $10^5$ values from
\[
10^5, \ldots, \max(x)
\]
\end{enumerate}
To determine whether the underlying distribution is a power-law we use the \cc{bootstrap\_p} function
<<eval=FALSE, tidy=FALSE>>=
## This may take a while
## Use the mle to estimate the parameters
bs_p = bootstrap_p(m_m, no_of_sims=1000, threads=2)
@
\noindent The object returned from the bootstrap procedure contains seven elements
\begin{itemize}
\item A $p$-value - \verb|bs_p$p|. For this example, $p=\Sexpr{bs_p[["p"]]}$ which indicates that we can not rule out the power law model. See section 4.2 of the Clauset paper for further details.
\item The original goodness of fit statistic  - \verb|bs_p$gof|.
\item The result of the bootstrap procedure (a data frame).
\item The average time (in seconds) for a single bootstrap realisation.
\item The simulator seed.
\item The package version.
\item The distance measure used.
\end{itemize}
The results of this procedure are shown in figure \ref{F4}.

\section{Distribution objects}

For the Moby Dick example, we created a \texttt{displ} object
<<distribution_objects>>=
m_m = displ$new(moby)
@
\noindent The object \cc{m\_m} has class \cc{displ} and inherits the \texttt{discrete\_distribution} class. A list of available distributions are given in table \ref{T1}. 
\begin{table}[h]
  \centering
  \begin{tabular}{@{} lll @{}}
  \toprule
  Distribution & Object name & \# Parameters \\
  \midrule
  Discrete Power-law & \texttt{displ} & 1 \\
  Discrete Log-normal & \texttt{dislnorm} & 2 \\
  Discrete Exponential & \texttt{disexp} & 1 \\
  Poisson & \texttt{dispois} & 1 \\
  \\
  CTN Power-law & \texttt{conpl} & 1 \\
  CTN Log-normal & \texttt{conlnorm} & 2 \\
  CTN Exponential & \texttt{conexp} & 1 \\
  CTN Weibull & \texttt{conweibull} & 2 \\
  \bottomrule
  \end{tabular}
  \caption{Available distributions in the \cc{poweRlaw} package. These objects are all reference classes.}\label{T1}
\end{table}
<<echo=FALSE>>=
m_m$setXmin(est)
@

\noindent All distribution objects listed in table \ref{T1} are reference classes.\footnote{See \texttt{\mbox{?setRefClass}} for further details on references classes.} Each distribution object has four fields:
\begin{itemize}
\item \texttt{dat}: a copy of the data set.
\item \texttt{xmin}: the lower cut-off $\xmin$.
\item \texttt{pars}: a vector of parameter values.
\item \texttt{internal}: a list of values use in different numerical procedures. This will differ between distribution objects.
\end{itemize}
By using the mutable states of reference objects, we are able to create efficient caching. For example, the mle of discrete power-laws uses the statistic:
\[
\sum_{i=\xmin}^n \log(x_i)
\]
This value is calculated once for all values of $\xmin$, then iterated over when estimating $\xmin$. 

All distribution objects have a number of methods available. A list of methods is given in table \ref{T2}. See the associated help files for further details.
\begin{table}[h]
  \centering
  \begin{tabular}{@{} lp{7.5cm} @{}}
    \toprule
    Method Name & Description \\
    \midrule
    \texttt{dist\_cdf} & Cumulative density/mass function (CDF)\\
    \texttt{dist\_pdf} & Probability density/mass function (PDF)\\
    \texttt{dist\_rand}& Random number generator\\
    \texttt{dist\_data\_cdf} & Data CDF \\
    \texttt{dist\_ll} & Log-likelihood\\
    \texttt{estimate\_xmin} & Point estimates of the cut-off point and parameter values\\
    \texttt{estimate\_pars} & Point estimates of the parameters (conditional on the current $\xmin$ value)\\
    \texttt{bootstrap} & Bootstrap procedure (uncertainty in $\xmin$)\\
    \texttt{bootstrap\_p} & Bootstrap procedure to test whether we have a power-law\\
    \texttt{get\_n} & The sample size\\
    \texttt{get\_ntail} & The number of values greater than or equal to $\xmin$\\
    \bottomrule
  \end{tabular}
  \caption{A list of functions for \texttt{distribution} functions. These objects do not change the object states. However, they may not be thread safe. }\label{T2}
\end{table}

<<echo=FALSE, results='hide', message=FALSE, warning=FALSE, error=FALSE>>=
if(!file.exists("blackouts.txt"))
  download.file("http://goo.gl/BsqnP", destfile="blackouts.txt")
blackouts = read.table("blackouts.txt")
@

\section{Loading data}

Typically data is stored in a csv or text file. To use this data, we load it in the usual way\footnote{The blackouts data set can be obtained from Clauset's website: \mbox{\url{http://goo.gl/BsqnP}}}
<<loading_data,eval=FALSE>>=
blackouts = read.table("blackouts.txt")
@
\noindent Distribution objects take vectors as inputs, so
<<>>=
m_bl = conpl$new(blackouts$V1)
@
\noindent will create a continuous power law object.
\begin{figure}[t]
\centering
<<echo=FALSE>>=
est = estimate_xmin(m_bl)
m_bl$setXmin(est)
plot(m_bl, panel.first=grid())
lines(m_bl, col=2)
@
\caption{CDF plot of the blackout dataset with line of best fit. Since the minimum value of $x$ is large, we fit a continuous power-law as this is more efficient.}\label{F6}
\end{figure}

<<echo=FALSE, results='hide', message=FALSE, warning=FALSE, error=FALSE>>=
if(!file.exists("plfit.R"))
  download.file("http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws/plfit.r", destfile="plfit.R")
source("plfit.R")
if(file.exists("plfit_res.rds")) {
  plfit_res = readRDS("plfit_res.rds")
} else {
  plfit_res = plfit(moby)  
  saveRDS(plfit_res, file="plfit_res.rds")
}
@

\section{Comparison with the \texttt{plfit} script}

\subsection{The discrete case}

Other implementations of estimating the lower bound can be found at
\begin{center}
\url{http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws/}
\end{center}
In particular, the script for estimating $\xmin$ can be loaded using
<<eval=FALSE>>=
source("http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws/plfit.r")
@
\noindent The results are directly comparable to the \cc{poweRlaw} package. For example, consider the Moby Dick data set again. Running
<<eval=FALSE>>=
plfit_res = plfit(moby)
@
\noindent gives estimates of $\alpha=\Sexpr{plfit_res$alpha}$ and $\xmin = \Sexpr{plfit_res$xmin}$. These results are slightly different than those obtained by the \cc{poweRlaw} package. This is because the \cc{plfit} by default does a parameter scan over the range
\[
1.50, 1.51, 1.52, \ldots, 2.49, 2.50
\]
\noindent To exactly replicate the results, we could use
<<results='hide', eval=FALSE>>=
estimate_xmin(m_m, pars=seq(1.5, 2.5, 0.01))
@
\noindent Currently, there is a bug with the \cc{plfit} script when $\xmin = 1$. This is easily demostrated via a simulation 
<<cache=TRUE>>=
x = rpldis(1000, 1, 2)
plfit(x)
@


\subsection{The continuous case}

The \texttt{plfit} script also fits continuous power-laws. Again the results are comparable. For example, suppose we have one thousand random numbers from a continuous power-law distributions with parameters $\alpha = 2.5$ and $\xmin = 10.0$
<<the_ctn_case>>=
r = rplcon(1000, 10, 2.5)
@
\noindent The \texttt{plfit} automatically detects if the data is continuous
<<>>=
plfit(r)
@
\noindent Fitting with the \texttt{poweRlaw} package gives approximately the same values
<<>>=
m_r = conpl$new(r)
(est = estimate_xmin(m_r))
m_r$setXmin(est)
@
\noindent Of course, using the \texttt{poweRlaw} package we can easily plot the data
<<fig.keep='none'>>=
plot(m_r)
lines(m_r, col=2)
@
\noindent to get figure \ref{F7}.
\begin{figure}[t]
\centering
<<echo=FALSE>>=
plot(m_r, ylab="CDF", 
     pch=21, bg=1, cex=0.5, 
     panel.first=grid(), xlim=c(10, 1000))
lines(m_r, col=2, lwd=2)
@
\caption{CDF plot of one thousand random numbers generated from a power-law with parameters $\alpha=2.5$ and $\xmin = 10$. The line of best fit is also shown.}\label{F7}
\end{figure}
 
\bibliography{poweRlaw}
\bibliographystyle{plainnat}

<<clean-up, include=FALSE>>=
# R compiles all vignettes in the same session, which can be bad
rm(list = ls(all = TRUE))
@

\end{document}

<<echo=FALSE, eval=FALSE>>=
##Used to generate the figures for github
ppi = 50
png("../graphics/figure1.png", width=6*ppi, height=4*ppi, res=ppi)
setnicepar(mfrow=c(1, 2))
plot(m_m, xlab="x", ylab="CDF")
lines(m_m, col=2, lty=2)
grid()
plot(m_bl, xlab="x", ylab="CDF")
lines(m_bl, col=2, lty=2)
grid()
sink = dev.off()

png("../graphics/figure2.png", width=6*ppi, height=4*ppi, res=ppi)
setnicepar(mfrow=c(1,2))
hist(bs$bootstraps[,2], xlab=expression(x[min]), ylim=c(0, 2000), 
     xlim=c(0, 30), main=NULL, breaks="fd")
grid()
hist(bs$bootstraps[,3], xlab=expression(alpha), 
     ylim=c(0, 500), xlim=c(1.8, 2.1), main=NULL, 
     breaks="fd")
grid()
sink=dev.off()
@    
       
       
